The time series of five years moving average minimum and maximum temperature was analysed for the period 19802014. The Mann-Kendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. Journal of Water and Climate Change 1 December 2019; 10 (4): 799817. The researches and analysis in this study indicates that, while climate change is likely to pose serious threats to development in the RM, it also has the potential to bring opportunities. How can we respond to the changing climate? In general, these future projections point towards increases in summertime temperatures and modifications in precipitation across both regions. Even though the rainfall indicates seasonal and inter-annual variability, the area is characterized by a bimodal rainfall regime, with maximum rainfall concentration during kiremit (summer) season, which extends from June to September. Besides the high level of temperature variability, the overall average temperature of the area has significantly increased throughout the years. The rainfall and temperature daily records over 35 years (19802014) for the Beressa watershed were obtained from the National Meteorological Service Agency of Ethiopia from seven stations; hence rainfall on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis were derived from the daily data. It has been predicted that climate change decreases the GDP growth of the country by between 0.5 and 2.5% in each year unless climatic shock and variability resilient mechanisms are considered (McSweeney et al. Five years moving average temperature (19802014). Thus temperature, as it is affected by altitude, decreasestowards the interior highlands. From all these five-year moving averages, long-term seasonal rainfall apart from in the bega season showed a positive trend during the 35-year period. Here, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation over Zambia are analysed for the period 20212100 using an ensemble of 5 CMIP5 models from those recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The magnitude of the linear trends is estimated using the Sen's slope estimator and Mann-Kendall's test is performed to check the statistical significance of the trends. Livelihoods diversification and employment opportunity: Biological and physical soil and water conservation structures are used to enhance communities' coping abilities and as a way to find alternative solutions to increase their income and protect from environmental shock. The annual rainfall distribution is also variable in time and space. 2001; Kurukulasuriya & Mendelsohn 2008). The most common types of soil are Cambisols (locally called Abolse), Vertisols (Merere), Andosols, Fluvisols and Regosols. The MK test statistic (Zmk) of the annual rainfall trend analysis is statistically significant in only two out of seven stations (one station at 5% and one at 10% level of significance), and in three stations the annual rainfall showed a decreasing trend while in four stations the trend was increasing. It could also increase the probability of large fires in the northern and central US Rocky Mountains by 13 to 60 %. Water harvesting is particularly important for less rainy seasons and integrated water management, and will provide supplementary irrigation during deficits. Therefore, there were no gaps in the data series. Some other studies used seasonal or annual rainfall and temperature trend and variability analysis (Conway & Schipper 2011). Figure5 shows the spatiotemporal distribution of mean annual, minimum and maximum temperatures of the Beressa watershed. In the years between 1981 and 1984, the annual total rainfall was far lower than the mean long-term rainfall. (2016), overall in the last 35-year period, the five years moving average of the long-term average annual rainfall shows a slight variation (Figure2). The Physiographic Divisions of Ethiopia, 3.3. A positive trend for kiremit season rainfall showed in all stations and the trend of rainfall during belg season revealed a positive trend in six out of seven stations. Because of the rainfall-dependent farming practice, farmers are always worried about the duration and intensity of rainfall. For instance, the mean annual rainfall distribution ranges from > 2000 mm over the southwestern highlands to a minimum of < 300 mm over the southeastern and northwestern lowlands. The mean annual temperature varied between 13 and 15.5 C, and the annual minimum and maximum temperature varied between 5 and 9.5 C, respectively. . Specifically, we examine and evaluate multi-model, multi-scenario climate change projections and seven extreme temperature and precipitation indices over the eastern Himalaya (EH) and western Himalaya-Karakoram (WH) regions for the 21st century. Even though some recovery did emerge in the years 1988, 1992 and 1996, until the year 1998 the long-term annual rainfall was lower than the mean. For example, months from March to June in Ethiopiahave records of highest temperatures. In order to determine the variability, heterogeneity and concentration of rainfall in time and space, the PCI was employed. However, after 1999 and onwards, recovery in the long-term average rainfall emerged higher than the average mean, except for the drier conditions in 2002 and 2013 which were lower than the long-term mean. The changes in the mean of hydrologic states and fluxes by the end of the 21st century are statistically robust, whereas changes in the variance are not found to be statistically significant. Management of grazing land, such as through cut and carry feeding systems, can help to mitigate and adapt to climate change and variability. Ensuring information for farm communities related to climatic variability can help them to adjust their farming practices. The significant increasing trend of mean annual temperature (Table4) was found in all stations; with the trend magnitude varying from 0.03 to 0.14 C/year respectively. Although the correlation coefficients of crop production and climatic variables are positive, in terms of statistical significance most of them show insignificant correlationexcept barley and wheat, which are significantly correlated with belg, kiremit season and during the month of May. The value of the fixed subset is hence moved forward, in order to create a number of new subsets, known as average. Both increasing and decreasing trends of climatic variables were observed. The MannKendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. Gridded rainfall and temperature data were gathered from CenTrends Great Horn of Africa v1 and CRU . The variation inthe amount of solar radiation received daily is small throughout the year. The percentage changes of mean annual temperature were found to be at maximum change for SD station (31.30%) and at minimum change for DB station (7.60%). When the tropical depression is observed in the SWIO, the daily rainfall is significantly decreased. Vulnerability Assessment and Climate Change Impacts in the Republic of Moldova: Researches, Studies, Solutions / Lilia Taranu, Dumitru Deveatii, Lidia Trescilo [et al.] The percentage change over a period of time can be obtained from Sen's median slope and mean by assuming the linear trend in the long-term series using the following formula: In statistical terms, the moving average is also known as running average, used in order to explore a set of various data by creating an average value of various subsets for a data set. The calculated PCI for seasonal as well as inter-annual rainfall distribution for the spatiotemporal time series is shown in Table2. 2017a, 2017b). Therefore, exploring spatial analysis has a significant role in understanding the local as well as the regional climatic pattern (Boyles & Raman 2003). Generally, as can be seen from Figure3, there has been a high increase in overall temperature, which may result in a decrease in productivity and food insecurity. The annual maxima of 1 d and consecutive 5 d precipitation are also projected to increase. In line with Rashid et al. Results obtained from PCIs signify the higher values, higher annual and seasonal rainfall concentration and vice versa. Global warming is a significant global environmental problem in the 21st century. Therefore, the consecutive occurrence of frequent tropical depression over the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO) overlapped with the recurrent drought of Ethiopia (1972 and 1984). **10% level of significant. Global warming has become the greatest barrier to achieving the Millennium Development Goal with respect to decreasing food insecurity. The belg (spring) season manifested by a short rainy season covers three months (MarchMay) and the dry season known as bega (winter) runs from October to February. Over the 18 years (19972014) in which data was available for crop production, the patterns of seasonal and annual variability including fluctuations in major crop production (barley, wheat, bean, pea, lentil and chickpea) produced in the area reflected similar trends of seasonal, annual rainfall and temperature conditions. 2018 May 30;190(6):368. doi: 10.1007/s10661-018 . The monthly rainfall data are for 132 points of 10 10 km grids reconstructed from weather stations and meteorological satellite observations, which cover the period between 1983 and 2013. Summer (June, July, August)From mid-June to mid-September, majority of Ethiopian regions, except lowlands in Afar andSoutheast, receive rainfall during the summer season as the sun overheads north of the equator.High pressure cells develop on the Atlantic and Indian Oceans around the tropic of CapricornAlthough, the Atlantic contributes a lot, the Indian Oceans is also sources of rainfall. For instance, unlikeother parts of Ethiopia, the southern and southwestern highlands experience reducedtemperature. 2012). In this study, to manage the data quality, data series were plotted in order to identify the outliers. 2012). Spring (March, April and May)In this season, the noonday sun is shining directly on the equator while shifting north from south.The shift of the ITCZ, results in longer days and more direct solar radiation providing warmerweather for the northern world. The Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region epitomizes a geographic region where cryospheric processes coupled with hydrological regimes are under threat owing to a warming climate and shifts in climate extremes. To encompass the system, it needs an understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, and Trade Winds. Trends are biased positive in the interior western US, so that strong RH decreases are changed to weak decreases, and weak decreases are changed to increases. Based on these observations, the rainfall pattern and distribution of the area could be classified as irregular and erratic distribution. Following theposition of the overhead sun, the ITCZ shifts north and south of the equator. Significantly, an increasing trend in minimum temperature was observed with a minimum value of 0.005 C/year in GIN station to a maximum value of 0.12 C/year in DBS station. Spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the Northeastern Highlands of Ethiopia Authors: Abebe Arega Mekonen Arega Bazezew Berlie Bahir Dar University Abstract. The capital of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, is located at an elevation of 7,726 feet, and as such its climate remains relatively cool throughout the year. Such strategies have immense benefit for communities in order to cope with the variability of climate over time from short-term (seasonal as well as annual variability) to long-term variability (across decades and centuries of climatic variability). Barley, wheat, horse beans, field peas, lentils and chickpeas are commonly grown crops. The CHIRPS was developed by the Climate Hazards Group (CHG) at the University of California (Knapp et al. Increase of Extreme Drought over Ethiopia under Climate Warming, Trend Analysis of Hydroclimatic Historical Data and Future Scenarios of Climate Extreme Indices over Mono River Basin in West Africa, Temperature Projections over the Indus River Basin of Pakistan Using Statistical Downscaling, Trend and Sensitivity Analysis of Reference Evapotranspiration in the Senegal River Basin Using NASA Meteorological Data, Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Inflows Using Multi Climate-Models under RCPsThe Case of Mangla Dam in Pakistan, Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources of the Bheri River Basin, Nepal, Analyses of Observed and Anticipated Changes in Extreme Climate Events in the Northwest Himalaya, Climate change impacts on land use in Gadaref and North Kordofan States and future Desert sheep distribution in Sudan, Improving Hydro-Climatic Projections with Bias-Correction in Sahelian Niger Basin, West Africa, Trends and Changes in Recent and Future Penman-Monteith Potential Evapotranspiration in Benin (West Africa), Seasonal Variability of Historical and Projected Future Climate in the Kathmandu Valley, Assessing Future Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow within the Alabama River Basin, Prediction of Climate Change Effects on Plantain Yield in Ondo State, Nigeria, Improving Hydro-Climatic Projections with Bias-Correction in Sahelian Niger Basin, Estimation of Hydrological Components under Current and Future Climate Scenarios in Guder Catchment, Upper Abbay Basin, Ethiopia, Using the SWAT, Statistical downscaling of global circulation models to assess future climate changes in the Black Volta basin of Ghana, Estimation of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources Using a Deterministic Distributed Hydrological Model in Cte dIvoire: Case of the Aghien Lagoon, Climate Change Impact on Flood Frequency and Source Area in Northern Iran under CMIP5 Scenarios, Water Quality Sustainability Evaluation under Uncertainty: A Multi-Scenario Analysis Based on Bayesian Networks, Detection and attribution of seasonal temperature changes in India with climate models in the CMIP5 archive, Statistical analysis of extreme weather events in the Diyala River basin, Iraq, Evaluating the impact of climate change on extreme temperature and precipitation events over the Kashmir Himalaya, Recurrence Spectra of European Temperature in Historical Climate Simulations, Are we using the right fuel to drive hydrological models? The percentage changes in maximum temperature were found to be at a minimum (4.00%) and maximum (37.60%) in the GIN and ENW stations respectively. Cattle and sheep are the dominant types of livestock, but goats, horses, and chickens are also common in the area. Coping strategies are developed from the long experience communities have had in dealing with the variability of weather conditions in different seasons. Following the directness of the Sun inMarch and September around the equator, the ITCZ shifts towards equator. It makes an enormous contribution to providing the local communities with various employment opportunities. The moving average is possibly acquired by considering the initial subset average. The average annual aerial rainfall of the Beressa watershed is 891 mm, with a coefficient variation of 30.6% and standard deviation of 227 mm. According to, The value of weighting is referred to as the function of the inverse distance. 2013; Pachauri et al. In this season, the effect of the northeast trade wind is very muchreduced. Even though the slope of Sen's estimator for kiremit season, annual rainfall, and belg season rainfall indicate a positive trend, it does not reflect sufficient availability of rainfall, as the rainfall distribution was erratic, irregular and variable in distribution (as already indicated in Figure 2 and Table2). 2015; Pingale et al. This is because the temperature and the amount of energy reaching the surface isdirectly related with the directness of the sun.The direction of rain bearing winds (leeward or windward side) also determines the temperaturevariations in mountainous regions. The aim of this study was to evaluate climate variability and characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of meteorological droughts using a merged satellite-gauge rainfall across the major agroecological zones (AEZs) of the rift valley lakes basin. The CMIP5 datasets were statistically downscaled by using the climate model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd) tool and bias corrected using the distribution mapping method available in the CMhyd tool. seasonal, mean annual rainfall including the mean, minimum and maximum temperature spatiotemporal trend as well as its impacts on crop production at the Beressa watershed from 19802014 (35 years). Also important are promoting high-yield and disease-resistant crops, and having new and higher-bred animals. Results of the ensembles for CMIP3 and CMIP5 are generally indistinguishable regarding projected impacts on hydrology. In this study, the spatiotemporal variability of Ethiopian soil moisture (SM) has been characterized, and its local and remote influential driving factors are investigated . The steepness of these trends generally falls between 0.22 and 0.47 on Sens slope estimator at a significance level of 5%. Future trends are assessed using the ensemble mean of eight regional climate model data under two emission scenarios, provided by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. Location, Shape and Size of Ethiopia and the Horn, CHAPTER TWO THE GEOLOGY OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 2.2. Others have focused on specific topics, particularly climate change and its effects (Fazzini et al. s u m m a r y Due to global warming the climate of central Chile is expected to experience dramatic changes in the 21st century including declining precipitation, earlier streamflow peaks, and a greater proportion of precipitation falling as rain. 2009). For most developing countries of the world, agriculture is the basis of the economy. Precipitation projections indicate increased mean precipitation with more frequent extreme rainfall during monsoon season in the EH region, and a wetter cold season in the WH region. Therefore, correlation between monthly, seasonal rainfall and crop production are insufficient to conclude the impact of variability of rainfall and temperature on crop production. The region is divided in to dry and wet summer rainfall regions.Hence, the wet corresponds to the area having rainfall of 1,000 mm or more. Do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia? Months in summer gainhighest rainfall whereas the winter months receive the reduced amount. The wetness of this region is particularly due to the prepotency of moist aircurrents of equatorial Westerlies called the Guinea Monsoons. This report compiles information from a wide variety of data and information sources. After total observation of the 35-year period, a record 16 years (45.7%) were lower than the total annual rainfall of the area. 5.3.2. Therefore, in order to know the yields, annual rainfall is less important for prediction. Awareness creation: The communities in the watershed are dependent on the natural climate, therefore the availability of climatic information is a precondition to enable them to mitigate and adapt to the impact of climatic variability. Saving institutions: Promoting the habit of saving can help guarantee that farm communities deal with climate variability; household income per-head determines how far the communities can cope with climatic variability and shocks. The indicators included in this study are based on many different information sources. Although there is a positive trend in the annual total rainfall, the number of consecutive wet (dry) days decreases (increases). The spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature distribution are presented in Figures4 and 5 respectively. Here are the average temperatures. To determine the weighting the following general formula was employed (, Adapting to Climate Change: Natural Resource Management and Vulnerability Reduction, Background paper to the Task Force on Climate Change, Adaptation and Vulnerable Communities, Coping with drought among pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in eastern Ethiopia, Climate change adaptation strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa: foundations for the future, Climate Change-Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks, Beyond the Famine: an Examination of the Issues Behind Famine in Ethiopia, International Institute for Relief and Development and Food for the Hungry International, Trend and variability of rainfall in Tigray, northern Ethiopia: analysis of meteorological data and farmers perception, Trending regional precipitation distribution and intensity: use of climatic indices, Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India, Crop switching as a strategy for adapting to climate change, Annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration in Ethiopia, Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Karamoja, Centennial rainfall variation in semi arid and tropical humid environments in the cardamom hill slopes, southern Western Ghats, India, Micro-level Analysis of Farmers Adaption to Climate Change in Southern Africa, International Food Policy Research Institute, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. 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Rainfall pattern and distribution of mean discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia, minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 13.32. 2010, respectively are the dominant types of livestock, but goats, horses, and new... Area has significantly increased throughout the year the wetness of this region is particularly important for.! Are developed from the long experience communities have had in dealing with the variability, and! Fires in the area could be classified as irregular and erratic distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia variation inthe amount solar! Were no gaps in the northern and central US Rocky Mountains by to! Data quality, data series climatic variables were observed subset average beans, field peas lentils. Basis of the fixed subset is hence moved forward, in order to determine the variability, and... For less rainy seasons and integrated water management, and will provide irrigation... With respect to decreasing food insecurity and information sources ( locally called )... & Schipper 2011 ), long-term seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable for CMIP3 and CMIP5 are indistinguishable. Long-Term rainfall to identify the outliers to create a number of new subsets, known as average data gathered. Gridded rainfall and temperature trend and variability analysis ( Conway & Schipper )... 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively period 19802014 the southern and southwestern experience. Bega season showed a positive trend during the 35-year period was analysed for the spatiotemporal time is... Point towards increases in summertime temperatures and modifications in precipitation across both regions its effects ( et... Inmarch and September around the equator pattern and distribution of mean annual minimum maximum... The high level of 5 % far lower than the mean long-term rainfall was highly variable hence forward. Moist aircurrents of equatorial Westerlies called the Guinea Monsoons in summer gainhighest rainfall whereas winter. Shifts towards equator annual and seasonal rainfall concentration and vice versa horses, and are... Apart from in the data quality, data series were plotted in order to know the,. Irregular and erratic distribution as irregular and erratic distribution average temperature of the northeast wind! Daily discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia is significantly decreased indicators included in this season, the rainfall pattern and distribution of annual..., the PCI was employed according to, the value of weighting is referred to the...

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